ADB forecasts 6.1% GDP growth for Bangladesh in FY24, higher than World Bank’s

Bangladesh's economy is projected to grow 6.1 percent in fiscal 2023-24, riding on exports, according to the Asian Development Bank. 

The growth of gross domestic product (GDP) may go up 6.6 percent in the next fiscal year, the Manila-based lender said in the Asian Development Outlook today.

Despite weaker global demand, exports of Bangladesh's traditional low-end garments will continue to grow as exporters use local yarn and fabrics due to the dollar crisis, it said. 

The projection for 2024 is higher than a 5.8 percent GDP expansion in the year to June 2023.

The ADB also projects that average inflation will moderate to 8.4 percent in the current fiscal year and enable private consumption to grow. 

In South Asia, Bangladesh is forecast to log the second-highest GDP growth after India's 7 percent in the current year. 

The ADB's projection comes days after the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics said economic growth in the October-December quarter of fiscal 2023-24 halved to 3.78 percent, the slowest pace in three quarters, as manufacturing output growth declined sharply owing to reduced domestic consumption.

Services sector growth also declined by half during the quarter, offsetting the marginal spike in agricultural production.

Early this month, the World Bank said Bangladesh, the second largest economy in the South Asia region, will register subdued growth for reduced private consumption affected by high inflation. 

The GDP will expand 5.6 percent in fiscal 2023-24, which is below the average annual growth rate of 6.6 percent over the decade preceding the Covid-19 pandemic.

Relatively slower growth is projected to persist in the next fiscal year of 2024-25, at 5.7 percent, driven by a modest recovery in private consumption supported by a moderation in inflation, the World Bank said.